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Money Metroid's avatar

Good update, helps me understand what KPIs to watch. Any takes on the BM Smart Mirror (bm-smartmirror.jp)? The concept gives me wifi fridge vibes. Plus margin drag from installing and servicing hardware if that's what they're planning to do.

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Cornerstone Value's avatar

Yeah, I saw this. Looks really dumb. I think the beta will probably flop and the company will move on. Biggest concern for me is like, what is management doing here? Not confidence-instilling.

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Money Metroid's avatar

That’s my ideal case too: reality shows up quickly in the beta tests, they pull the plug with zero pride, no damage done. We can keep an eye on it.

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Emerging Value's avatar

There were other write ups too

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Emerging Value's avatar

Although im usually more cautious about valuation based forward irr and targets.

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Emerging Value's avatar

It seems it can happen when a japanese stock is suddenly the source of some popular writeups. There is sometimes so hot money that comes without a long term approach.

Its normal that small companies have expenses to support their growth

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Cornerstone Value's avatar

Yeah could be that my write up put a bid on the stock. Seems fairly unlikely though relative to the move. I think ~$6m would need to change hands to create the up move. Only ~500 views on the article...

Re expenses: It's more about the derivative of expense vs the derivative of growth. In CYNDs case, distribution channels have allowed them to grow much faster than expenses and incremental growth capex is negligible. Now that the sales team is scaling, the expense slope is going to steepen briefly but it looks like growth is going to accelerate too, so I think the return on S&M will be good.

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